What is driving North Dakota’s K-12 enrollment growth?

North Dakota is one of only eight states that gained K-12 public school students between fall 2019 and fall 2024, according to newly released data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

Not only did North Dakota’s public school student enrollment grow by 3.1 percent, but it also posted the largest percentage increase of any state during that period.

National change in K-12 enrollment between fall 2019 and fall 2024

Source: Data from the National Center for Education Statistics; chart by Reason Foundation

Driving the growth, or helping the state defy national public school enrollment trends, could be its demographic shifts, according to Jude Schwalbach of Reason Foundation.

Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. Census Bureau, and state education agencies, Schwalbach tabulated the differences in births, population, and both domestic and international migration across the states where K-12 enrollment didn’t decline.

Source: Reason Foundation

As you can see for North Dakota, the state experienced an eight percent decline in births between 2014 and 2019, consistent with the national “baby bust” that began in 2007, notes Schwalbach.

From 2020 to 2024, however, the state’s population grew by 2.2 percent. North Dakota lost 6,450 people through domestic outmigration but gained 13,165 people through international migration during that time period. Schwalbach argues this influx of international migrants could have helped the state maintain or even increase public school enrollment, despite declining birth rates.

While NCES doesn’t parse out school-aged children in its data, gains through domestic or international movers either increased the number of students or softened enrollment losses due to declining births.

North Dakota is also one of a handful of states projected to see public school enrollment increase through 2031.

The gains, though, don’t necessarily mean enrollment will keep rising. For one, an expanding education marketplace could impact future numbers. Then there are also examples of states that experienced public school enrollment declines that demographic trends or shifts to nonpublic education can’t explain, points out Schwalbach.

“All these factors suggest that public schools in all states, including those enjoying a windfall from new residents, should prepare for lower student counts and right-size accordingly.”