Enrollment growth projected by 2031 in North Dakota schools

North Dakota is one of only nine states projected to see an increase in the number of public school students between 2022 and 2031, according to National Center for Education Statistics data reported by Jude Schwalbach with the Reason Foundation.

Out of the other eight states forecasted to experience public school enrollment growth — Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Utah — North Dakota’s growth is the second highest, after Idaho.

Following COVID, when states were struggling to rebound from enrollment declines, North Dakota experienced a nearly 2 percent increase in public school students. Through fall 2031, that growth is anticipated to increase over 6 percent.

This reflects broader population growth in the state: North Dakota is one of few that actually grew its population this century. North Dakota has also had more births than deaths in recent years and, unlike most of the U.S., has a younger population trend.

Even so, schools must not get too comfortable with the projected growth and assume it will remain stable. With growing competition and changing populations, schools may need to adapt to continue attracting and retaining students.

Estimated Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by State, Fall 2022-Fall 2031