Mission Impossible

Mineral Shortages and the Broken Permitting Process Put Net Zero Goals Out of Reach

Preview:

Mission Impossible: Mineral Shortages and the Broken Permitting Process Put Net Zero Goals Out of Reach provides a stark warning that the minerals needed to achieve so-called net zero policies are either in short supply, made inaccessible by permitting delays and excessive regulations or controlled by our geopolitical enemies, especially China. The report provides a sober assessment of the amount of minerals it will take to meet international, national and even local goals to get more and more of our energy from renewable sources such as wind and solar. Using data from a wide variety of sources including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Geological Survey and the Electric Power Research Institute, the report “does the math” on the startling differences between supply and demand for the minerals necessary to meet net zero goals including copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth metals.

The data show that the minerals needed for electric vehicles and the lithium-ion batteries that power them are creating much of the soaring demand for minerals, calling into question the wisdom of the current push to completely electrify the transportation sector. According to the research, annual demand for electricity to meet the projected growth in electric vehicle use will increase from 11 terawatts in 2021 to 230 terawatts in 2030. However, permitting delays in building new electric generation capacity and transmission lines make it unlikely these power demands can be met.

Beyond electric vehicles, the report also discusses how the explosive growth of power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers and their demands for always available new energy will compete on a grid that is becoming less reliable due to the closure of 24/7 dispatchable power from coal and natural gas power plants that are being replaced by intermittent wind and solar power.

The report is co-authored by Debra Struhsacker and Sarah Montalbano. Struhsacker is a hardrock mining policy expert with over 30 years of hands-on experience with the environmental and public land laws and regulations pertaining to mineral exploration and mine development. She is a Certified Professional Geologist with the American Institute of Professional Geologists and a co-founder of the Women’s Mining Coalition. Montalbano is a policy fellow at Center of the American Experiment specializing in energy and environmental policy.

Key findings from the report include:

• Modern life requires mining
• International, national and state-level policies based on the 2015 Paris Agreement are mandating changes in the composition of energy generation
• The federal government and many U.S. states, including Minnesota, have enacted laws to try to meet the NZE objective
• Federal and state mandates to close coal and natural gas powerplants are threatening U.S. electricity grid reliability
• A mandated energy transition would require numerous minerals
• The mineral intensity of electric vehicles is the largest driver of the skyrocketing demand for minerals
• No form of energy comes without tradeoffs
• The U.S. is vulnerable because it is import-reliant for many critical minerals
• Mines in some countries exploit workers and cause serious environmental impacts
• Federal government policies stack the deck against U.S. mining and resource development
• Permitting delays slow down all types of important projects including the solar and wind, transmission line, and mining projects needed for the energy transition
• Minnesota is ground-zero for permitting hurdles
• Congress needs to enact permitting reforms
• Mineral shortages will make achieving Net Zero by 2050 impossible
• Minnesota and the U.S. have an important role to play in responsible domestic mining that can help provide the minerals we need for many purposes
• Policymakers should assess ways to avoid and minimize the adverse impacts of an energy transition

See the full report here.