Price tag of Paris agreement up to $1.5 trillion per year
Last week, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released a new cost estimate to globally triple wind and solar power by 2030. The new price tag? $1.5 trillion annually.
The press release from IRENA starts like this:
Despite an unprecedented acceleration in renewable energy deployment in 2023, progress falls short to triple renewables by 2030. Current national plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030.
Furthermore, annual investment in renewable capacity would have to triple, from a new record high of USD 570 billion in 2023 to USD 1.5 trillion every year between 2024 and 2030, confirms the first official progress report of the landmark energy goals established by the UAE Consensus at COP28 in Dubai. Tripling renewable power capacity and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030 are critical enablers for keeping the 1.5°C goal within reach.
Whether or not the world succeeds in coughing up $1.5 trillion per year is beside the point if the minerals needed to build wind turbines, solar panels, EVs, and battery storage are in short supply. Our new report from Center of the American Experiment concludes that the amount of minerals it will take to achieve so-called net-zero policies by 2050 is unattainable due to permitting delays and shortages. Here’s a few key findings:
- Mineral shortages will make achieving Net Zero by 2050 impossible: Policymakers must take a more realistic approach to establishing energy transition timelines and goals that consider mineral intensity and how to use natural gas and nuclear baseload power generation as bridge fuels that minimize CO2 emissions while maintaining reliable electricity grids.
- Minnesota and the U.S. have an important role to play in responsible domestic mining that can help provide the minerals we need for many purposes: Because Minnesota and theU.S. have stringent and comprehensive environmental protection and labor standards and regulations, they can produce some of the minerals needed to meet energy transition goals and other uses from the cleanest and safest mines in the world.
- Policymakers should assess ways to avoid and minimize the adverse impacts of an energy transition. This evaluation should take a hard look at whether it makes sense to continue to pursue the current scale and timeframe of the NZE energy transition, whether the transition needs to be slowed down to reduce impacts, or whether it should be pursued at all.