How North Dakota’s population is growing, and how it isn’t

Photo: North Dakota Department of Transportation

Census Bureau data show that, between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2024, North Dakota’s population grew by 2.2%. This was slower than in 22 other states, as Figure 1 shows, including two of its three neighbors (highlighted in black). What lies behind this rather average rate of population growth?

Figure 1: Population change, 2020 to 2024

Populations can change either for “natural” reasons — births minus deaths — or because of net migration — immigrants minus emigrants. Table 1 shows the rates of natural change and migration from 2020 to 2024 per 100,000 of the 2020 population and how those rates rank among the 50 states.

Table 1: Rates and rankings of rates of components of population change, 2020 to 2024

With more births than deaths, North Dakota’s natural rate is positive — 1,423.0 per 100,000. This rate is one of the highest rates in the United States as Figure 2 shows: It ranks 4th, with Utah at the top and West Virginia at the bottom.

Figure 2: Rate of “natural” change per 100,000 of the 2020 population, 2020 to 2024

It is a different story when we look at migration, however. While North Dakota’s rate of migrants per 100,000 is still positive — more people moved into the state than moved out — at 862.0, this ranks below 39 other states as Figure 3 shows. Given the good performance on natural growth, this comparatively low level of immigration is the main factor behind North Dakota’s middling rate of population growth seen in Figure 1.

Figure 3: Rate of net migration per 100,000 of the 2020 population, 2020 to 2024

Migration can be either domestic — originating from/moving to elsewhere in the United States — or international — originating from/moving to another country.

Between 2020 and 2024, North Dakota lost residents, on net, to other part of the United States. This gives a negative rate for domestic migration of -827.9 per 100,000, as Figure 4 shows, a rate below that of 39 other states. Idaho scores best here and New York worst.

Figure 4: Rate of net domestic migration per 100,000 of the 2020 population, 2020 to 2024

Overall, North Dakota recorded positive net migration numbers because arrivals from abroad more than offset those residents leaving for elsewhere in the United States. We see this with a positive rate for international migration of 1,689.9 in Figure 5. Here, North Dakota ranks a much healthier 20th out of 50 states.

Figure 5: Rate of net international migration per 100,000 of the 2020 population, 2020 to 2024

North Dakota’s natural rate of population growth over the last few years has been among the healthiest in the United States. Its overall population growth has been slowed, however, by a relatively slow rate of immigration driven by a net loss of residents to elsewhere in the country. To grow the state’s GDP, we would like to see this reverse. Of course, we should always remember that the point of policy is not to grow GDP, necessarily, but per capita GDP.