Legalize marijuana in North Dakota? Voters will once again need to weigh in this fall

On November 5, North Dakota voters will once again be presented with the choice to legalize recreational-use marijuana in North Dakota. Previous ballot initiatives have been presented, and have failed, in 2018 and 2022.

A Brighter Future Alliance poll in 2024 found that 57% of North Dakota voters continue to oppose the measure while just 43% favor the measure.

North Dakotans would be wise to vote against marijuana legalization once again.

What are the facts?

“Initiated Measure 5” was placed on the statewide ballot in August after a group called the “New Economic Frontier” submitted 18,964 signatures on a ballot initiative petition — an amount that exceeds the required 2% of the population to add the issue to the ballot. 

A summary of the measure can be found here at Ballotpedia.

The petition measure title is as follows:

“The initiated measure would create a new chapter of the North Dakota Century Code. It would allow for the production, processing, and sale of cannabis and the possession and use of various forms of cannabis by individuals who are 21 years of age and older; direct a state entity to regulate and register adult use cannabis production businesses, dispensaries, and their agents; provide protections for individuals who are 21 years of age or older who use cannabis; provide penalties for violations of the chapter; preserve certain employer rights regarding use of cannabis products by employees; supersede local ordinances that otherwise would prohibit the purchase, sale, use, delivery, or growing of cannabis by or to individuals 21 years of age or older; and provide that fees must be appropriated for administration of this chapter.”

A “yes” vote seeks to approve the measure as summarized above, while a “no” vote seeks to reject the measure.

At current, there are 24 states which have legalized adult use marijuana in some form. North Dakota currently allows for medical marijuana use under regulation. Federal law continues to outlaw the possession or distribution of non-medical use marijuana.

Proponent’s arguments for passing the measure, per Ballotpedia:

• New Economic Frontier: “North Dakota’s economy is poised for growth, and legalizing cannabis presents a unique opportunity to expand it further. As seen in other states, legalizing adult-use cannabis can fuel economic development by creating new jobs, stimulating tourism, and generating tax revenue (5% sales tax). By embracing this growing industry, we can unlock new sources of income, foster entrepreneurship, and build a more resilient and prosperous economy for North Dakota. … Arresting adults for minor cannabis offenses drains law enforcement resources and burdens our judicial system. By legalizing cannabis, we can redirect these valuable resources toward addressing more pressing public safety concerns, ensuring our communities are safer and our officers can focus on serious crimes.” 

Opponent’s arguments against passage of the measure, per Ballotpedia:

• Opponents of the measure include the North Dakota Medical and Hospital Associations, North Dakota Peace Officers, Chiefs of Police Association of North Dakota, and North Dakota Sheriffs and Deputies Associations.
• Tim Blasl, President of the North Dakota Hospital Association, said, “It is crucial that we prioritize the well-being of our communities and take a cautious approach to any policy changes that could increase the prevalence of substance use and its associated harms. Instead of legalizing marijuana, we should focus on prevention, education, and providing adequate resources for those who need help with substance use and mental health issues. We continue to experience an epidemic in terms of behavioral health issues in our communities and the health and safety of our community must come first.”

• Dr. Stephanie Dahl, President of the North Dakota Medical Association: “Marijuana use is not without risk. Studies have shown that frequent use of marijuana is associated with the development of substance use disorders, impaired cognitive function, cancer, and mental health issues such as anxiety, psychosis, and depression. Marijuana legalization is also associated with more suicides, opioid use, and drug overdoses.” 
• Jason Ziegler, Mandan Chief of Police: “Don’t buy into the argument that legalization of recreational marijuana will free up law enforcement to focus on more serious crime. In fact, quite the opposite will happen. Legalization will lead to an increase in traffic accidents and fatalities. And the legalization of recreational marijuana will not eliminate the illegal sale of marijuana, causing law enforcement to focus their efforts on black-market sales and enforcing the public use ban in addition to the avalanche of other drug related crime inundating our state.” 
• Burleigh County Sheriff Kelly Leben: “The legalization of recreational marijuana will lead to increased adult use, access, and normalization of its use, but the increase will not be limited to adults only. States that have legalized recreational marijuana have also seen a dramatic increase in youth drug use compared to non-legalized states. The states that already have legalized marijuana are only now realizing the huge social costs associated with legalization.” 

Experiences of other states

Ballot Measure 5 would legalize the possession of up to 1 ounce of marijuana and three marijuana plants, and the recreational use of marijuana in private residences for those over 21 years of age. The measure also sets up a state entity to regulate and register adult use cannabis production businesses and dispensaries.

While the proposed measure is relatively conservative in its scope, many of the problems experienced by other states which have legalized marijuana are bound to also befall North Dakota. 

States that have legalized marijuana have found the experience to be unpleasant and unexpected in many ways. Legalizing “recreational adult use” marijuana amounts to state sanctioning of behavior that is not in the best interest of its citizens or the state, and behavior that repeatedly fails to produce the purported benefits, such as reducing the black-market for marijuana, providing an economic boon for the state, or redirecting valuable law enforcement and correctional resources.

Black-market

Despite suggestions that the legalization of marijuana would curtail the black-market for illicit marijuana, the opposite has occurred in states that have legalized marijuana. California, New York, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado were all “leaders” in the legalization of marijuana, and all have experienced a growth in black-market availability of marijuana.

Government regulated dispensaries with associated taxes and limits on potency and quantities cannot compete with the black market. Combine that with the more tolerant and accepting atmosphere created when a state legalizes marijuana, and it should be no surprise that the black-market increases, rather than decreases, under legalization.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul, has called New York’s experience with the proliferation of black-market marijuana, following her state’s legalization, a “disaster.” 

Increased use of marijuana, including underage use

States that have legalized marijuana have experienced increases in:

• Use and abuse of marijuana
• Appeal for and use of marijuana by minors
• Increased incidents of driving while impaired, including associated injuries and fatalities
• Increased accidental ingestion of marijuana in its many forms by children (up 25% over 6 year period)
• Increased use of marijuana in prohibited locations such as public venues, hotels, concerts, restaurants, schools, public transportation, and private motor vehicles

The non-existent “boon” to the economy

One of the primary arguments for legalizing marijuana has been the purported economic “boon” that states would experience. The reality is that while some revenue is generated, it is offset in no small manner by the bureaucratic regulatory process created to manage the issue, and the societal costs of increased marijuana use, manifesting as increases in mental health/chemical dependency issues and accidents and injuries as a result of impaired driving.

The Milken Institute Review summarized the fallacy below:

“The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that adding legal and illegal marijuana to the national income accounts would raise officially measured GDP by 0.2 percent, or around $40 billion in 2019. This is a large number in absolute terms, but small in the context of a $23 trillion economy. Thus, claims of huge economic benefits from legalization, such as increased employment, are likely overstated. And some of any measured increase — perhaps a lot of it — will reflect economic activity that was already occurring in the underground sector.

There is no plausible scenario in which marijuana taxes will ever make a big contribution. Nor, we believe, should governments try to get much more milk from this cow: higher taxes could well backfire by shifting sales back to the underground market.”

Look no further than Minnesota for examples of the claims and realities of the economic impact of legalizing marijuana. Minnesota legalized recreational adult use marijuana in 2023, and there have been wildly differing estimates and realities of the economic impact legalization will have on the state so far. 

• In 2023 the Minnesota Department of Revenue estimated gross tax receipts would be $42 million in 2024/25, and $120 million in 2026/27. As of June 2024, those estimates have been adjusted to $24 million in 2024/25, and $109 million in 2026/27, a downward adjustment of nearly $30 million in just a year.
• In 2023 the Cannabis Management Office budget was set by the Legislature. This budget predicted that there would be a net cost, after adjusting for estimated revenue, of $30 million to run the office in 2024/25. The estimated net cost jumps to over $56 million in 2026/27. While the Cannabis Management Office represents the single biggest cost related to cannabis legalization, it does not include all the other increased state costs such as increases to the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, State Patrol, Department of Health budgets, to cover enhanced duties to these departments as they ensure the proper management of the cannabis legalization effort.

As proposed the North Dakota measure only predicts a modest net revenue of $1.9 million between 2025-2027, while also acknowledging “an undetermined amount of additional costs associated with behavioral health and social impacts…” The modest revenue prediction can and likely will disappear if things go as they have for other states.

Considering the estimated boon to other state economies has been grossly overestimated in many cases, North Dakotans should be weary of claims that North Dakota will reap economic benefits from the legalization of marijuana.

The criminal justice system wastes valuable time and resources investigating, prosecuting and imprisoning low level marijuana users. 

It is a fallacy that large percentages of law enforcement, court, and correctional resources are being wasted on enforcing low level marijuana laws. Data suggests those who are arrested and imprisoned are seldom, if ever, just low-level marijuana users. 

• In 2023 there were a total of 29,467 arrests for all crimes in North Dakota, according to state crime data records. Of those, just 3,967 were for all drug related crimes, including distribution. Of all the drug related seizures in the state, 47% were marijuana related, equating to about 1,864 or just 6% of all arrests.
• In 2023 according to North Dakota Department of Corrections prison data, there were 1,899 adult inmates in prison. Of that total, just 127 inmates in the entire state were in prison for drug possession of any amount or type. Given 47% of the state drug seizures in 2023 involved marijuana, 47% of the 127 drug possession inmates, at most, were in prison for marijuana related crimes. That would equate to just 3.1% of inmates, at most, being imprisoned for marijuana possession — most likely possession of significant amounts, which would remain illegal under the proposed legislation.

This is the reality found in Minnesota and other states as well, where a very small number of the state’s prison inmates are there for marijuana offenses, and those that are involve large quantities that would remain illegal under the proposed measure.

Arguably, the most effective manner to deal with this issue is to maintain official prohibitions against the possession and use of marijuana, while continuing to prioritize enforcement of prohibitions against those producing or distributing large quantities of marijuana.

Conclusion

It is poor policy for a state to sanction the use of marijuana. States that have legalized marijuana have often realized that use, abuse, and injuries increased after legalization. Promises of an economic boon and a reduction in black-market sales have been misleading at best, and the social costs of legalization are just not understood well enough yet. 

North Dakotans have wisely exhibited a reluctance towards legalizing marijuana. They should remain resolute again in 2024, while they continue to observe the self-inflicted pain other states are enduring, after legalizing marijuana.