Is the election next week or in November?

North Dakota’s June 9th primary election is fast approaching. This year has many wondering whether in effect the primary, rather than the November election, will be North Dakota’s real electoral contest this year.

In a state where Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats, the battles are largely no longer over party. They’ve seemingly become bitter feuds within the Republican Party.

Democrats have been quiet

Relative unity appears on display in the North Dakota’s Democratic-NPL Party.

Some traditional Democrats (reminiscent of the days when the party wielded considerable political power and elected many in North Dakota) complain that their party has left them in favor of those on the far left who — here and nation-wide — now essentially control it. But their voices are few and faint.

As a result, little infighting there is on public display. Democrats seem to have had a relatively unified state convention and are fielding candidates in some places where they have not, in recent memory — signs of relative health, if not electoral viability, for a political party.

Their challenge in making headway at an opportune time this year (due to the opposing party’s mess) is their extreme leftist tilt.

There are some “safe districts” for Democrats in the state, however. Largely populated by their supporters, where seldom even opposed by Republicans, the electoral success of their candidates there is all but assured. Yet, these places in North Dakota are few and far between. 

As in most state-wide elections, in most of the state’s legislative districts, Republicans have been historically likely to win and little has changed on that front.

Republican Infighting

What clearly has changed is how Republicans are fighting each other and their own party.

Several upcoming Primary races involve former party faithful who have actually, essentially, dropped out of their Party — forsaking conventions, support and other party activities to go it alone as candidates. These have achieved places on the Primary ballot only by gathering signatures from the general public, rather than through the endorsement of those in the Party with which they’d long affiliated.

In some cases, outsiders or newcomers are challenging endorsed candidates, which is nothing new in primary elections, although it is historically rare in North Dakota. If most challenges this year came from such little-known outsiders it will be far less notable. But an apparently orchestrated effort spans all state-wide Republican races and those districts where more local Republican voters have become actively involved. Rather than seeking and competing for their Party’s endorsement, these folks have simply ignored it.

What has made this election year radically different is what several incumbent office holders are up to. 

As their last hurrah (many will be term limited after this election cycle), they’ve apparently forsaken their Party, snubbed local supporters who’d long backed them, and skipped their Republican conventions, the endorsements of which they’d always feverishly sought, to essentially go it alone — no party endorsements, no party backing, just lots of money (much of it bankrolled by the Governor or those close to him) to buy ads — lot’s of them — and they all contain a persuasive, if misleading, descriptor — “Conservative”.

That’s particularly interesting because, in most cases, these are folks who are clearly more moderate or liberal (choose your term) than their primary competition. The obvious question is why they don’t just admit it and attempt to garner voters’ support for their moderate, middle-of-the-road or leftward-leaning ideology. Instead, they crow loudest about being conservative when, in fact, if they truly were (most political observers would agree) they probably wouldn’t be facing challenges from Republicans in primaries, in the first place.

As Shakespeare might be paraphrased, “Methinks thou cry conservative too much!” 

Feverishly trying to be seen as conservative by those who, objectively, are not is nothing new in North Dakota. When successful, years ago, the Democrats mastered such deception. Now, left-leaning Republicans have apparently decided that it’s their turn.

Understanding that their Republican base is, in fact, conservative, such deceptive labeling is their only hope of (and perhaps the best tactic for) wooing those voters haven’t noticed.

Former Gov. Doug Burgum, while clearly moderate or left-leaning in his Party’s circles, pioneered the tactic among Republicans during his campaigns and, coupled with lots of money to outspend opponents, it worked. This Primary election will be a test to see if it still does, and on a broad scale. 

Ironically, the odds are in favor of the cynical ploy.

These Primary battles often involve incumbents with very familiar names, juxtaposed against endorsed Republican candidates — little-known newcomers who are reportedly running only because they believe Republican principles have not been reflected in some of these incumbents’ voting records, while representing them and their neighbors at the state capitol.

Primary elections also typically feature low turnouts.

A coveted party label, nonetheless

The side show would not be unique in North Dakota history, if appropriately labeled.

Many are aware of the NPL (Non Partisan League), an originally independent progressive group which had gone it alone in the last century before flirting with both major parties and ultimately attaching its ironic “non partisan” label permanently to one of them. 

A third party has not been formed in this debacle, however…at least not yet.

No, interestingly, these candidates are still vying to run in the general election this fall under the Republican label. They know that, in North Dakota, that’s become the gold standard. The larger question is whether the state’s Republican party will survive the chaos.

These antics and this year’s primary races are both interesting and unprecedented. 

While jettisoning their Party, not seeking its endorsement, and snubbing those North Dakotans who’ve long support it — and them — they still want the Republican label over their names this fall. 

That’s politically smart. As the only candidates so identified, if successful in the Primary, their election this fall will, in many cases, be virtually guaranteed.

The power play

This circus is clearly not the result of disjointed, piecemeal decisions by a few candidates but, rather, an orchestrated effort. It’s also not a bottoms up movement emanating from grassroots citizens rising up to affect political outcomes. Instead, it has all the earmarks of a top-down, well thought out, well financed power play by what some would call the state’s “political elite”.

Many in this crowd are current officeholders whose names are all but household names, giving them an incredible advantage — name identification — at the ballot box…and they know it. Never mind, of course, that their historic electoral success and resulting familiarity was earned largely by the support of the Party they now ignore.

Couple that with boatloads of money raised to support them by the Governor and special interests and, clearly, the odds of their success are very strong, even without the endorsements of the Republican Party and its loyal supporters that they’ve long desired but now rebuffed. 

Cronyism may, indeed, trump the party faithful and their endorsement. That assumes, of course, that the voters are unaware of or unbothered by the antics.

That could be largely true but only next week’s primary election will tell the story. 

Lincoln famously said that you can fool all of the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all the people all the time. Perhaps these “chickens will come home to roost” but the odds are on the skilled politicians’ side in next week’s Primary election. That’s, unfortunately, the nature of modern political campaigns.

In any event, this year’s true election could be next week’s Primary, so it’s not one for those who want to make a difference to miss.

The fall General Election could be a sleeper.